Chuck Schumer stood up this week and announced the battle for the Senate is “a toss-up” and Democrats are “on the path to victory.” Now, any time that man smiles, check your wallet. But here’s what’s interesting: the same Republican machine that told you the Senate was locked down six months ago is now burning cash defending Mississippi. Mississippi. A state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since the dinosaurs. And we’re supposed to believe this is all just organic momentum.
Cook Political Report moved Texas and Iowa from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” on Thursday. Cook is one of those outfits that never moves a rating without wanting you to know it moved a rating. They cited the “shifting political environment” and “quality of candidates,” which is consultant-speak for “we’re covering our backsides in case this goes sideways.” Jessica Taylor, an editor over there, even admitted to NOTUS that Republicans “may still have a slight advantage.” So which is it? Toss-up or slight Republican edge? They’re hedging because they always hedge. The whole handicapper industry exists so that six weeks from now, no matter what happens, somebody can point to a spreadsheet and say they called it.
Here’s what’s actually going on, and you don’t need a Georgetown degree to see it. Trump’s tariffs have farmers in Iowa paying through the nose for fertilizer and diesel. Gas prices are up because of the Iran mess. His approval is sitting at 33 percent in the Reuters poll. The economy that was supposed to be the whole pitch is now the thing dragging the party down. And the Republican establishment, which spent a year warning that nominating Ken Paxton in Texas would be a disaster, is now watching James Talarico out-raise their guy and lead in early polls. They knew. They all knew. And they let it happen anyway because the donor class doesn’t care who holds the seat as long as the spending bills keep moving.
Meanwhile, Tim Scott took over the National Republican Senatorial Committee and told senators in safe seats not to expect bailouts. His plan was to lock down red states early and go on offense. Instead, the Senate Leadership Fund is flooding Iowa, Alaska, Maine, and North Carolina with attack ads in August. That’s not offense. That’s panic dressed up in a sport coat. John Thune’s super PAC wouldn’t be dropping millions in Alaska if Mary Peltola weren’t a real threat, and everybody in Washington knows it.
Now, the pattern here is the one nobody in the press wants to talk about. Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights looked at 3,000 Senate polls over four cycles and found the same story every time: Democrats look competitive in red states during the summer, then fade by November. Summer polls are a mirage. The real numbers tighten when people actually start paying attention. And the Republican ad machine hasn’t even cranked up yet. They’ve barely spent. When they do, every Democrat from Omaha to McAllen is going to get hit with a wall of negative TV that would make your head spin.
But here’s the part that ought to make you angry regardless of which team you cheer for. In Michigan, the Democrats nominated Abdul El-Sayed, a democratic socialist, for what should be a safe seat, and he’s statistically tied with Republican Mike Rogers at 48-47. In Florida, Angie Nixon just won a Senate primary running on the same socialist brand. The NRSC is already tying Jon Ossoff to El-Sayed. The Democratic Party is nominating people who’d make Bernie Sanders blush, and the Republican response is to run ads about it instead of offering a single thing that would make a working man’s life better. Two parties. Same donors. Same swamp. Different tie colors.
Schumer says Democrats have “blown the map wide open.” Maybe. Or maybe the map was always a prop, and the people drawing the lines already know where it ends. Either way, the little guy gets the bill.