Vladimir Putin flew to a chain of islands his country stole from Japan at gunpoint in 1945, toured a fish plant, sampled some caviar, and flew home. The United Nations called it a “bilateral issue.” Funny how that works. When the strong take from the weak, the experts always reach for the same word: bilateral. As if two parties sat down and had a disagreement. As if 17,000 people weren’t deported off their own land so a Soviet garrison could move in.
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the visit was “absolutely unacceptable” and “offends the sentiments of the Japanese people.” Strong words. Now ask yourself what those words cost Putin. Nothing. Not a ruble, not a sanction, not a single sleepless night. The Russian embassy in Tokyo said the islands are “an integral part of the Russian Federation” and that Putin’s travel there is “not a matter for discussion with foreign states.” Translation: sit down and be quiet. And the international order that supposedly exists to prevent exactly this kind of thing? The UN spokeswoman said they “encourage all concerned to exercise restraint.” They encourage. Like a guidance counselor telling two kids to use their words.
Here is what the experts do not want you to piece together. Putin did not wake up Thursday morning and decide on a whim to visit a fish-processing plant on Iturup. He was already in Sakhalin the day before, watching naval drills, holding a meeting on “the security of Russia’s eastern borders.” Then he hops over to the disputed islands. Last month, Chinese and Russian warships sailed through a strait in the Kurils during a joint patrol. Russia has spent the last decade stacking Bastion coastal missiles and Su-35 fighters on those rocks. North Korea is shipping artillery shells to Russia’s war effort. Japan’s own defense white paper flags all three countries as growing threats.
So you have Russia, China, and North Korea coordinating around Japan’s borders while the West issues statements. Ask yourself who benefits from a Japan that is stretched thin, surrounded, and told by every international body that its grievances are a “bilateral issue.”
Vera.vvo (CC BY-SA 4.0) via Wikimedia CommonsThe islands have been fortified. The population is 20,000 Russian citizens living in a harsh climate on volcanic rock with gold, silver, and rich fishing grounds. The Soviet Union grabbed them in the final days of World War II, deported every Japanese resident, and built air and sea bases. No peace treaty was ever signed. Eighty years later, Putin is eating caviar on camera and the Kremlin is posting the video for the world to see. That is not a diplomatic incident. That is a man showing you his hand and daring you to call it.
Putin called Japan’s sanctions “unprovoked” and said Russia is “not threatening Japan.” This from the man parking missile systems on stolen territory and running joint naval patrols with Beijing through the waters around them. The man literally flew to a military air base on contested ground and said he is not threatening anyone. And the UN encourages restraint.
The establishment playbook is always the same. Strong statement. Strong protest. Strong concern. Then nothing changes and the next time it happens, everyone acts surprised. The little guy, whether it is a country of 125 million or a citizen reading the news, watches the same cycle and is told to trust the process. The process is a press release and a shrug.
Putin knows exactly what he is doing. The question is whether anyone in a position of actual power does.