Well, bless their hearts. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies just asked California voters what kind of politician they’d like to vote for, and the answer is not a mainstream Democrat. In a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office since you still had to hang up a phone to end a call, the Democratic brand itself is now the problem.
Forty percent of registered voters told pollsters they’d be more inclined to back a candidate who calls themselves “progressive.” Twenty-nine percent said less inclined. For “democratic socialist,” it’s a dead heat: 38% more inclined, 38% less. But here’s the kicker. “Mainstream Democrat” drew a negative reaction from 36% of voters and a positive one from just 29%. The party label is now a bigger turnoff than the word “socialist.”
I have questions. When did “mainstream Democrat” become the dirty word in the party that runs the whole state? And when did a state with a $4.3 trillion economy, rolling blackouts, and people fleeing to Texas in U-Hauls decide the answer is more government?
Among actual Democrats, the numbers get even more telling. Sixty percent of Democratic voters want a progressive. Fifty-eight percent want a democratic socialist. Only 48% want a mainstream member of their own party. That’s not a fringe. That’s the base telling the establishment to get out of the way.
Brett A / PexelsAnd the generational split is the part that ought to keep anybody with common sense up at night. More than two-thirds of California Democrats under 40 say they’d be more inclined to support a democratic socialist. Less than half of Democrats over 65 say the same. The kids who’ve never known a country that wasn’t run by bureaucrats think the solution is more bureaucrats. The folks who remember when a dollar bought something and a job meant something aren’t so sure.
Now, I’m not going to sit here and tell you California Republicans are winning anything. Fifty-two percent of voters are less inclined to back a Republican, and 64% say “MAGA supporter” makes them less likely to vote for you. That state is gone, at least for now. But that’s not the story here. The story is that the Democratic Party in the biggest state in the union is radicalizing against itself.
You can see it on the ground. In the East Bay, state Sen. Aisha Wahab is fighting transportation official Melissa Hernandez for a congressional seat vacated by Eric Swalwell, and AIPAC dumped $6.3 million trying to stop the progressive. As of Thursday, that race was too close to call. In Sacramento, a 40-year-old DSA-endorsed city councilwoman named Mai Vang outpolled 11-term incumbent Doris Matsui in the June primary. In Los Angeles, democratic socialist City Council member Nithya Raman is challenging Mayor Karen Bass, who has the endorsements of Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom. The establishment is spending millions to hold seats it used to take for granted.
Bernie Sanders, who started this whole thing, wrote in The Guardian that the reason is “not complicated.”